Assessing the Risk of Crisis in the Taiwan Strait: A South Korean Perspective
Institute for Future Strategy Issue Brief Vol.49
Assessing the Risk of Crisis in the Taiwan Strait: A South Korean Perspective
This issue brief analyses the structural factors driving the risk of crisis in the Taiwan Strait amid intensifying U.S.–China strategic competition and a shifting regional security environment. It further examines the strategic dilemmas that South Korea faces as new patterns of conflict emerge around the Taiwan Strait.
Tensions surrounding the Taiwan Strait have recently deepened due to the interaction of multiple complex factors: changes in Taiwan’s domestic politics; the strengthening of authoritarian and nationalist tendencies in Chinese politics; the United States’ policy of strategic ambiguity; and Japan’s increasingly assertive statements alongside growing Sino–Japanese tensions. In particular, changes in the foreign policy strategy of a second Trump administration, transatlantic disagreements between the United States and Europe over the Trump administration’s posture toward Taiwan, China’s expanding international public opinion campaigns and strategy of isolating Japan, and the expansion of military exercises have emerged as new variables that heighten the possibility of crisis in the Taiwan Strait.
In the event of a sudden contingency in Taiwan, South Korea could face complex military and security risks. These include the protection of its nationals, the possibility of involvement stemming from the strategic flexibility of United States Forces Korea (USFK), U.S. expectations regarding the role of the Republic of Korea Armed Forces, the risk of Chinese retaliation, and the potential involvement of North Korea. In addition, South Korea would confront significant economic concerns, such as increased costs associated with rerouting maritime trade routes, disruption of critical supply chains, instability in stock and financial markets, as well as the possibility of domestic political division and public opinion fragmentation.
This issue brief suggests that, in the event of a Taiwan Strait crisis, South Korea should internally consider proportional, indirect, and rear-area support measures, while externally maintaining strategic ambiguity. It further emphasises the importance of carefully assessing regional public opinion and geopolitical trends when formulating the government’s position on a Taiwan Strait contingency, and of strategically leveraging such considerations in diplomacy with the United States and neighbouring countries.
