Report

Institute for Future Strategy, Seoul National University — Population Cluster
1st-Year Report

This report presents a comprehensive summary of the first-year research outcomes of the Population Cluster at the Institute for Future Strategy (IFS), Seoul National University. The study aimed to assess how Korea’s rapidly declining birth rate and accelerating population aging affect the nation’s long-term sustainability, and to propose academic and policy directions for effective response.

The steep fall in fertility and the number of newborns, combined with the extension of life expectancy, is expected to reduce both the quantity and quality of the labour force, thereby constraining long-term economic growth. Moreover, the rapid demographic transition is anticipated to create various imbalances across multiple sectors of Korean society.

To address these challenges, the Population Cluster divided its resources and research capacity into two main components: Core Research and Networking Projects.

• The Core Research component focused on an area of high policy relevance yet lacking robust empirical evidence—the imbalance in social service demand and supply caused by demographic change. During the first year, research concentrated on identifying how shifts in population structure are producing mismatches between demand and supply in healthcare and social welfare services, and suggested policy measures to mitigate these imbalances.

• The Networking Projects aimed to complement this by fostering academic collaboration within and beyond Seoul National University. Through joint academic conferences, forums, and partnerships with researchers from academic societies, media institutions, and other organizations, the cluster disseminated findings and policy insights that extended beyond the scope of the core study.

Moving forward, the Population Cluster plans to continue this dual strategy of Core Research and Networking Projects through the second and third years, deepening its focus on demographic sustainability, social care systems, and evidence-based population policy.

Keywords:
Demographic change, low fertility, population aging, care services, elderly care, decision-making support for dementia, population policy, core research, networking projects