Report

Institute for Future Strategy, Seoul National University — Economic Security Cluster
Qualitative Analysis Team Report (12 Countries)
Russia’s Economic Security

The Economic Security Cluster at the Institute for Future Strategy (IFS), Seoul National University conducted a comprehensive assessment of the economic security policies of twelve key countries with close ties to Korea. The qualitative analysis team, composed of current and former officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, examined each country’s strengths, weaknesses, and linkages with Korea to provide a strategic foundation for Korea’s own economic security policy.

This report focuses on Russia’s economic security and its implications for Korea. Russia’s approach to economic security has been shaped by President Vladimir Putin’s long-standing rule, underpinned by a great power strategy that integrates foreign, defense, and economic policy. Russia’s economic and security landscape is deeply influenced by its domestic political order, resource-based economy, and international relations. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine triggered a profound shock to Russia’s post–Cold War geopolitical position, forcing a recalibration of its domestic and external economic security posture amid heightened global uncertainty.

A SWOT analysis of Russia’s economic security yields the following insights:

• Strengths: Consolidated state power and political stability under Putin’s regime; strong national cohesion; vast natural resources; state-led capitalism; energy self-sufficiency; and diplomatic autonomy supported by military capability.

• Weaknesses: Rigid authoritarian governance; overdependence on resource exports and pervasive corruption; declining investment and structural economic fragility; demographic contraction and persistent public health vulnerabilities; and deepening isolation and reduced global influence following the war.

• Opportunities: Maintenance of domestic stability through controlled governance amid prolonged war; diversification of energy export markets and reduced dependence on the U.S. dollar to mitigate Western sanctions; and pursuit of expanded cooperation with China, India, and other developing economies to alleviate global isolation.

• Threats: Prolonged confrontation with the West and the intensification of mutual sanctions; disruption of global energy and food supply chains and worsening inflation; and long-term deterioration of economic security due to delayed structural reforms and increased military burdens, despite short-term self-reliance measures and alternative supply chain efforts.

For Korea’s economic security, mutual sanctions between Russia and Western nations have suspended or restricted many avenues of cooperation in resource trade and strategic industries, heightening systemic risks. However, as of 2022, Korea’s direct dependence on Russian resources remains relatively low, and alternative import sources have been secured, limiting immediate shocks. Nevertheless, if geopolitical fragmentation continues, long-term challenges to economic security could intensify. Furthermore, given Russia’s strategic interests in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula, shifts in regional security dynamics may indirectly affect Korea’s economic security. Future policy will thus require continuous monitoring of political and economic developments in Russia and the West, alongside scenario-based planning for supply chain resilience and energy diversification.

Keywords:
Russia, economic security, Ukraine war, energy security, sanctions against Russia, supply chain instability, resource-dependent economy, global supply chain restructuring