Report

Institute for Future Strategy, Seoul National University — Economic Security Cluster
2nd-Year Report

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of the second-year outcomes of the Economic Security Cluster at the Institute for Future Strategy (IFS), Seoul National University. Using product-level trade data from UN COMTRADE, the cluster developed a Supply Chain Dominance Index (SCDI) to measure a nation’s ability to influence or disrupt global supply chains. In this framework, dominance refers to a country’s capacity to disrupt others’ supply chains through exports, while vulnerability represents the extent to which a country is exposed to such disruptions by others.

According to the analysis, China held the most dominant position in global supply chains as of 2021, followed by the United States and Germany. In contrast, South Korea exhibited the highest import vulnerability among all countries studied. Trade network analysis revealed that the United States’ export power has generally declined across most product categories, while China’s export influence has expanded significantly in nearly all sectors. For Korea, export power toward democratic countries showed a relatively moderate decline, whereas export power toward authoritarian countries declined more sharply.

To analyze global value chains (GVCs), the study utilized input–output (IO) tables. The findings indicate that the United States remains the most influential actor as both consumer and producer, with China emerging as the second most influential since 2005. The vulnerabilities within GVCs linking the U.S., China, Korea, and Japan vary considerably across industrial sectors.

The cluster presented these research results at major international forums, including the 2023 SBS Seoul Digital Forum, the 2024 Davos Forum, and the 2024 Asian Leadership Conference hosted by The Chosun Ilbo. It also organized joint seminars with The Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology (RCAST) at the University of Tokyo and the Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET) under Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Council. Through these exchanges, the cluster introduced the international agenda of “cooperative economic security” and explored concrete avenues for Korea–Japan–Taiwan collaboration. Building on these achievements, a trilateral meeting on cooperation in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and energy is scheduled for July 2024.

Keywords:
Supply chain dominance, economic security, trade network analysis, global value chain, technological sovereignty, cooperative economic security, Korea–Japan–Taiwan cooperation