Report

Institute for Future Strategy, Seoul National University — Population Cluster
2nd-Year Report
“A Study on Addressing Socioeconomic Imbalances Caused by Population Aging”

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the major outcomes from the second-year research of the Population Cluster at the Institute for Future Strategy (IFS), Seoul National University. The Population Cluster’s second-year research focused on two key objectives: first, to forecast the socioeconomic imbalances arising from demographic change and propose policy solutions; and second, to identify the causes of Korea’s declining birth rate and regional depopulation while presenting practical mitigation strategies. The report summarizes eight core research findings as follows.

First, the study on child and elderly care demand in light of future demographic, household, and labor supply changes highlights the need to account not only for population size but also shifts in household structure. Changes such as smaller household sizes, higher labor participation among primary caregivers, and increasing numbers of elderly household members all affect the projected demand for care services. The findings indicate that these demographic and household transitions may create mismatches in labor and service types, underscoring the need to strengthen service accessibility, balance supply and demand, and improve service quality.

Second, the study on the health status and determinants among female migrant workers in the health and welfare sector reveals that, with Korea’s elderly population projected to reach 40% by 2050, demand for care services is rapidly increasing while the supply of care workers remains insufficient. Many developed economies have addressed this imbalance by introducing foreign labor, and similar discussions are emerging in Korea. The study finds that female migrant workers in this sector face multidimensional health risks, suggesting the need for in-depth analysis and targeted policy measures.

Third, the research on foreign and immigrant workers in elderly care examines how immigration can alleviate labor shortages in Korea’s rapidly aging society. It identifies the social and economic implications of foreign labor in the care sector and reviews international cases to draw policy lessons for Korea. The study emphasizes the importance of minimizing social costs while ensuring effective integration of foreign care workers.

Fourth, the study on institutional responses to future social change notes that shifts in family structure and aging are increasing the prevalence of dementia and mental health disorders. In particular, cognitive disorders such as dementia limit independent living and require policy attention to support decision-making mechanisms. The research explores key factors influencing the quality of life among individuals with neurocognitive disorders and calls for early institutional measures such as supported decision-making systems.

Fifth, the study on the impact of childlessness on social and psychological well-being among Asian elderly analyzed data from Korea, China, Thailand, Vietnam, and Myanmar. It found that elderly individuals without children generally exhibit lower levels of social participation and higher levels of depression compared to those living near their children, with cultural variation across regions. The study discusses the social and emotional implications of aging without children in different Asian contexts.

Sixth, the study on private education costs and low fertility used panel data to estimate how private education expenditures affect birth rates. The analysis shows that a 10% increase in average private education spending leads to a 1.24% decline in fertility, suggesting that rising education costs accounted for approximately 10.6% of Korea’s fertility decline between 2007 and 2023.

Seventh, the study on child penalties and fertility analyzed National Health Insurance data to track income changes before and after childbirth. The findings reveal a sharp decline in women’s earnings following childbirth, confirming the close relationship between labor market gender gaps and low fertility. The study also notes that trends in child penalties differ across cohorts and that gender inequality in labor markets may not automatically decline even with lower penalties.

Eighth, the study on regional depopulation and youth migration examined how education and employment influence young people’s regional choices. The analysis found that supporting local employment for young talent is more effective than supporting local university enrollment alone. It also suggests that enhancing the quality and community integration of regional universities may indirectly encourage youth settlement in local areas.

Keywords:
Population aging, socioeconomic imbalance, demographic and household change, childcare and eldercare, female migrant workers, health and welfare services, health determinants, elderly care, immigrant labor, future society, supported decision-making, childless elderly, social and psychological well-being, private education costs, low fertility, child penalty, regional depopulation, youth migration