2023EconomicSecurityReport
Institute for Future Strategy, Seoul National University — Economic Security Cluster
2023 Economic Security Cluster Report
“Mapping Supply Chain Power in the Age of Economic Security: Introducing the Supply Chain Dominance Index”
Economic security has emerged as a central keyword in today’s international politics, shaping not only economic relations among nations but also the nature of their security and diplomatic interactions. To establish effective economic security strategies, it is essential to accurately analyze inter-state economic relations and understand them systematically from an economic security perspective. Accordingly, the Economic Security Cluster set its first-year research objective as the development of a scientific, objective, and intuitive indicator capable of explaining economic security, supported by extensive data collection and analysis.
This study defines the concept of Supply Chain Dominance (SCD) as:
(1) a country’s ability to control or influence global supply chains through dominance in major export industries or products, and
(2) its capacity to protect its domestic economy from global supply chain disruptions.
The concept of supply chain dominance stands out for combining clear conceptual definition with empirical measurability. To quantify it, the study estimated each country’s SCD based on bilateral trade data (HS 6-digit level) from UN COMTRADE.
The analysis produced several key findings.
First, China has shown the most rapid increase in export competitiveness and significantly strengthened its supply chain dominance.
Second, while the United States maintains the world’s largest economy, its high import dependence on a few countries has weakened its supply chain dominance. Korea and Japan also exhibit high import dependency, ranking among the most import-vulnerable economies globally.
Third, India and the Netherlands have emerged as new export powers, while Hong Kong has seen a sharp rise in import vulnerability.
Fourth, Vietnam and Thailand demonstrate a “growth pattern based on import vulnerability,” highlighting their structural dependence within regional production networks.
Particular attention is given to advanced technology sectors, which play a crucial role in the emerging era of technological competition. Among the twelve strategic industries identified globally, nine closely linked to the Fourth Industrial Revolution—including electric vehicles, robotics, bio-health, aerospace, premium consumer goods, new energy industries, advanced materials, next-generation displays, and next-generation semiconductors—were analyzed. The results reveal that the trade structure of these industries has evolved from a “Top Five” (Germany, China, the U.S., Japan, Korea) into a “Top Four” system since Japan’s decline after 2018. Notably, Korea’s Supply Chain Dominance Index turned positive in 2017, indicating that Korea has successfully secured a position in the new phase of global industrial and technological competition.
Based on these findings, the study presents key policy implications requiring short-term and immediate action: the establishment of resilience programs for strategic industries, the strengthening of technological sovereignty in core sectors, the diversification of supply chain dependencies, and the institutional reinforcement of international cooperation frameworks.
Keywords:
Economic security, supply chain dominance, export competitiveness, import vulnerability, global supply chain, emerging industries, technological sovereignty, interdependence, resilience, supply chain diversification, international cooperation system
