Report

Institute for Future Strategy, Seoul National University — Avian Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment and Preparedness Task Force
“Avian Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment and Preparedness”

This report presents the findings of the Avian Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment and Preparedness Task Force organized by the Institute for Future Strategy (IFS) at Seoul National University. With the development of vaccines and antibiotics, humanity once expected an era free from infectious diseases. However, the continuous emergence of new infectious diseases—such as HIV, the 2009 novel influenza, MERS (2015), and COVID-19 (2020)—has shown that humanity remains vulnerable to newly emerging pathogens and that complete eradication of infectious diseases remains difficult.

Experts identify coronaviruses and influenza viruses as the most likely pathogens to trigger the next pandemic. Since the first human infection and death caused by avian influenza in Hong Kong in 1997, additional human cases have continued to be reported worldwide, with a mortality rate exceeding 30% among reported infections. Since 2000, avian influenza has spread widely among birds, crossed species barriers to infect mammals, and increased in human cases—making concerns over a potential avian influenza pandemic a realistic possibility rather than an overstatement.

Accordingly, this study conducted a risk assessment and preparedness plan for a potential avian influenza pandemic. Infectious disease experts reviewed existing scientific data and organized symposia and forums in cooperation with the Korean Academy of Medical Sciences and the Korea Medical Bio Reporters Association. Specifically, the study compiled data on avian influenza infections in humans and animals, assessed the risk of human-to-human transmission, and proposed strategies to reduce zoonotic transmission and strengthen national response measures in the event of a pandemic. Through this, the research team sought to present appropriate response strategies to address the growing risks posed by avian influenza.

Keywords:
Avian influenza, pandemic, infectious disease response, viral mutation, health security, epidemic prevention, risk assessment