Working Paper

Institute for Future Strategy

IFS Working Paper 2026-01 (Vol. 6)

Social Polarization and National Integration in South Korea

Who Seeks Judicial Resolution of Political Conflict? Winners and Losers in the Martial Law–Impeachment Crisis

Yae-jin Sung (Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Chonnam National University)

This study examines how citizens perceive the judicial resolution of political conflict following the declaration of martial law, the impeachment, and the 21st presidential election. Using the 2026 National Survey on Conflict Resolution and Social Integration in South Korea conducted by the Institute for Future Strategy at Seoul National University, it analyzes how respondents' political positions, based on their presidential vote choice, are associated with their general preferences for resolving political conflict, their evaluations of the three special counsel investigations, and their views on how the martial law incident should be handled. The results show that although there are significant differences between winners and losers in their general preference for political compromise versus judicial resolution, the substantive magnitude of these differences is relatively small. In contrast, the two groups differ sharply in their evaluations of the ongoing special counsel investigations and efforts to hold those responsible for the martial law declaration accountable. These findings suggest that citizens evaluate concrete judicial proceedings that are directly tied to their political interests much more differently according to their political position than they do the general principle of judicial resolution itself. They further imply that when the legitimacy and meaning of judicial processes are perceived differently depending on political winners and losers, legal resolution alone is unlikely to lead to political and social integration.

Keywords: judicialization of politics, winners and losers, political conflict, social integration, martial law