Working Paper

Institute for Future Strategy

IFS Working Paper 2026-01 (Vol. 4)

Social Polarization and National Integration in South Korea

Who Speaks and Who Falls Silent? Conflict, Division, Frustration, and Self-Censorship in the Aftermath of Martial Law

Sejin Koo (Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Inha University)

Political self-censorship in a democracy refers to the phenomenon in which citizens conceal their political views even in the absence of formal repression, thereby distorting the representativeness of the public sphere. This study explores the factors associated with self-censorship among South Korean voters following the declaration of martial law by analyzing voter survey data using both conventional regression analysis and SHAP-based machine learning. The results show that experiences of conflict within close personal relationships and perceptions of social division are the strongest predictors of self-censorship. They also reveal a "paradox of cognitive resources," whereby higher levels of education, political knowledge, and internal political efficacy are associated with greater self-censorship. In addition, women, younger people, and those pessimistic about upward social mobility are more likely to remain silent, revealing an unequal distribution of silence across social groups. By contrast, party affiliation and the strength of party support have little explanatory power. Because criticism and dissent are essential to sustaining democracy, greater attention should be paid to reducing the social costs that citizens face when expressing dissenting views.

Keywords: political self-censorship, spiral of silence, affective polarization, fear of isolation, SHAP