Search

Amid the relative decline of U.S. hegemony and the shift toward a sphere-of-influence–based international order, East Asia is entering a period of intensified strategic competition marked by U.S.–China rivalry, Russia’s renewed influence, Japan’s rearmament, and North Korea’s entrenched nuclear status backed by China and Russia. As the United States reduces external commitments and emphasizes strategic stability among great powers, South Korea faces growing uncertainty under a potentially weakening U.S. security umbrella. In this environment, Korea must urgently secure greater strategic autonomy by transforming the ROK–U.S. alliance into a more self-reliant partnership, establishing a peaceful nuclear capability foundation within the NPT framework, obtaining operational control of its armed forces, and redefining inter-Korean relations on the basis of assurance and deterrence rather than unattainable goals of denuclearization and immediate unification.

This brief proposes an OCA framework shifting Korea’s technology strategy from ownership to collaboration and access to strengthen sovereignty.

This working paper summarizes the discussion at the roundtable “A New U.S.–DPRK Dialogue: Korea at a Crossroads—Seeking Counsel from Senior Statesmen,” hosted by the Institute for Future Strategy at Seoul National University on October 21, 2026. As President Trump repeatedly raised the possibility of a U.S.–North Korea summit and North Korea defined inter-Korean relations as those between two “hostile states,” four senior figures in diplomacy and security discussed the prospects for a new U.S.–North Korea dialogue, managing the risks posed by North Korea’s nuclear program, recalibrating the ROK–U.S. alliance, nuclear latency, and South Korea’s national strategy amid U.S.–China competition.