Research Cluster

Democracy Cluster Future of Science and Technology Cluster Economic Security Cluster Population Cluster Global Korea Cluster Carbon Neutrality Cluster Balanced Regional Growth and Resilience Cluster [Expired]Pandemic Cluster

TF Project

[Expired]Foundational study for the advanced revision of the Korea-U.S. nuclear cooperation agreement [Expired]Preparation for Four Geopolitical Risks [Expired]Labor market reform tasks for restoring the dynamism of the Korean economy [Expired]Problems and Improvement Plans of Korean Education [Expired]Questions for the future of science and technology in Korea [Expired]Security and Economic Cooperation between Korea and Japan [Expired]The future of population for a sustainable society [Expired]Directions for sustainable future healthcare reform [Expired]Healthcare system improvements for the establishment of the primary care physician system [Expired]Avian influenza pandemic risk assessment and preparedness [Expired]The stagnant growth crisis: national strategy for economic prosperity

 

[Expired]Research on the outlook for key sectors of population change and response strategies [Expired]Exploring the public education system and its functions in population decline era [Expired]Policy advisory service for enhancing the future competitiveness of nuclear energy [Expired]Establishment of KEPCO's medium-to-long-term response strategy [Expired]Future agricultural and rural development strategies & response tasks for the Korea rural community [Expired]Rewriting Democracy [Expired]In the Era of Technological Competition, Korea's Future Prospects [Expired]Developing a nationally-unified response system to address frauds involving multiple victims [Expired]Changes in international politics and the rise of the global south [Expired]Research on identifying policy agendas and research issues for the national AI strategy

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Title Impacts of Declining School-Age Population on the Education Sector and Response Strategies Hit 747
Publication 2025-08-29

Institute for Future Strategy Issue Brief, August Vol. 41
“The Impact of Declining School-age Population on the Education Sector and Policy Responses”

This issue brief analyses the impact of the declining school-age population on primary, secondary, and higher education, and discusses possible policy responses. Due to the shrinking number of school-age children, educational indicators such as the average number of students per class and the student–teacher ratio in primary and secondary schools are expected to improve rapidly. However, this trend is also likely to exacerbate inefficiencies in educational finance, as schools become smaller and the number of small and very small schools increases.

In higher education, enrolment in four-year universities has already been declining since 2015, particularly among non-metropolitan universities. Starting in 2035, a full-scale decline in the number of university students is expected, creating significant challenges for many institutions in securing incoming freshmen.

In response, the issue brief emphasises that in order to address the increase in small schools, multiple factors—such as the scale of financial savings from school consolidation and projected future student populations—must be comprehensively considered. It also suggests exploring diverse, context-specific solutions, such as multi-purpose use of school facilities and strengthening schools’ childcare functions.

For universities, the report argues that preparations should be made for the projected decrease in future enrolment by pursuing downsizing strategies on the supply side, such as mergers, consolidation, and enrolment cap adjustments, along with cost reduction and financial restructuring. On the demand side, it stresses the need to attract foreign students, expand opportunities for adult learners, and tap into the growing demand for lifelong education. To support these efforts, it calls for the government to design a concrete and comprehensive roadmap.

Keywords
Declining school-age population, small schools, educational finance, university restructuring, lifelong education, foreign student recruitment



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