Project

Institute for Future Strategy, "Four Major Geopolitical Risks" Research TF

Preparation for Four Geopolitical Risks

1. The need for R&D
Russia's possible use of nuclear weapons following its invasion of Ukraine, changes in domestic and foreign policy, especially toward Taiwan, after Chinese President Xi Jinping's third term in office, North Korea's Kim Jong-un's armed provocation and possible regime instability, and the internal political conflict and lack of foreign policy coherence in the United States are some of the imminent risks facing the ROK. It is no exaggeration to say that the survival and prosperity of our communities depends on how we prepare for and overcome this risk. To do this, it is necessary to comprehensively analyze geopolitics, diplomacy, security, and economic issues to draw up policies. This is not only in line with the purpose of the Institute for Future Strategy to contribute to our society through convergence policy research, but also considers the human resources of Seoul National University to be a research task that the Institute for Future Strategy needs to carry out.

2. R&D Goals and Contents
The first half of the 21st century is an era of multiple conflicts. In addition to the existing conflicts caused by the competition between the United States and China for hegemony, Russia, which uses energy and force as a tool of foreign policy, is provoking a new conflict in Europe. There is even talk of Russian President Vladimir Putin using nuclear weapons. Even if the U.S. and Europe hold Russia accountable for conventional weapons, there is a good chance that the war will escalate. On top of that, both the U.S. and China are uncertain about how things will change internally. How will the U.S. political landscape change as we head into November's midterm elections? Will political tensions escalate or ease? Who will be the next president of the United States and what kind of foreign policy will he pursue? And what will happen to President Xi Jinping's Taiwan policy, which is certain to change at the Communist Party's 20th Party Congress, which opens on October 16, with a third consecutive term in office? Will China be more aggressive in the US-China competition for hegemony? What kind of policy will you pursue toward South Korea? All of these issues could have significant implications for South Korea's security and economy. In addition, South Korea faces the risk of North Korea. How will North Korea use its nuclear weapons? Is there no possibility of mutual coordination of foreign policy between North Korea, China, and Russia? Is there a possibility of keeping pace militarily, in particular?
The study first predicts the development and ramifications of four major geopolitical risks: the possibility of Russia's use of nuclear weapons after the invasion of Ukraine, changes in domestic and foreign policy after the re-inauguration of Chinese President Xi Jinping, the possibility of armed provocation and regime instability by North Korea's Kim Jong-un, and the internal political conflict and foreign policy inconsistencies of the United States. It also suggests how the Korean government and companies should respond and prepare. More specifically, it focuses on three aspects: First, we estimate the scenario when the four major geopolitical risks are at their highest. Second, identify the indicators that lead to the presumed scenario. Third, it provides guidelines for the preparation and response of our government and companies.

3. R&D Promotion Strategy Method and Promotion System
This research is conducted through collaboration between researchers at Seoul National University (Professors Kim Byung-yeon, Sohn In-joo, and Jeon Jae-sung) and former high-ranking government officials (Kim Yong-beom, former Vice Minister of Information and Technology, Kim Hyung-jin, former EU Ambassador and Deputy Director General of the National Security Office, and Ahn Do-geol, former Vice Minister of National Security) and convergence discussions and research by experts in security, diplomacy, and economics. The six-member research team includes three in the field of foreign affairs and security (Kim Hyung-jin, Sohn In-joo, and Jeon Jae-sung) and three in the field of economics (Kim Byung-yeon, Kim Yong-beom, and Ahn Do-geol), and regionally encompasses North Korea (Kim Byung-yeon), China (Sohn In-joo), Russia (Kim Byung-yeon), the United States (Jeon Jae-sung), and Europe (Kim Hyung-jin). During the four-month study period, scenarios, indicators, and policies agreed upon through mutual learning, coordination and coordination are presented through a number of face-to-face and non-face-to-face meetings. In addition, we plan to invite a number of advisory committee members to improve the quality and relevance of the report.

4. Utilization of R&D Results and Expected Performance
The resulting report will be distributed to governments, related agencies, and major corporations, contributing to the formulation of government policies and corporate responses.